Juniper research forecasts Amazon’s advertising revenue will reach $40 billion by 2023 — up 470% since 2018, driven by artificial intelligence and machine learning.

The tech should attract advertisers doing business today with Google and Facebook, but overall by 2020, Juniper expects AI will contribute to rising costs per ad. Demonstrating that better ad targeting can match current return on ad spend will become essential.

Overall, Juniper forecasts total ad spend on digital advertising will reach $520 billion by 2023, up from $294 billion this year, according to the research titled Future Digital Advertising: Artificial Intelligence & Advertising Fraud 2019-2023.

Google’s advertising revenue will exceed $230 billion by 2023, but its global share of digital advertising spend will fall 1% during the next four years as a result of the growth of competing platforms like Amazon and Baidu.

Amazon already dominates the U.S. ecommerce marketplace, which will surpass $129 billion this year, according to eMarketer. That means Amazon will take 20% of all U.S. retail ecommerce sales in 2019.

While 78% of U.S. digital shoppers consider Amazon their favorite place to buy and shop today, some 56% said they would like to buy and shop more from this platform in the future, according to eMarketer data, March 4, 2019.

Just 26% and 18%, respectively, could say the same about Google or another search engine, per the data.

Google and other search engines also fell behind consumer preference to shop in stores. Some 47% of U.S. digital shoppers cited in-store as their favorite way to buy and shop today, compared with 42% who said they would like to buy and shop more within stores in the future.

In eMarketer’s data, voice on platforms like Amazon Alexa fell to 2% as a favorite way to buy and shop today, compared with 6% where they would like to buy and shop in the future.