Apple Watch: Even With 70 p.c “no longer ” Apple may nonetheless promote millions

Now that details concerning the functions and pricing of the Apple Watch are public, trade observers are speculating in regards to the sales outlook for the device. a brand new poll from Reuters (n=1,245) argues roughly 70 % of the shopper public is simply “now not interested.”

while Pebble said it bought greater than one million smartwatches, Android wear hasn’t executed as smartly. more than a few hardware tracking corporations mentioned recently that Android put on shipped (no longer bought) between 720,000 and 750,000 devices in 2014, suggesting tepid public reaction to smartwatches.

to this point the Apple Watch has received most often certain but mixed evaluations. Some individuals are contemptuous of the upper finish “Watch edition” pricing and even giving the Watch the “Glasshole therapy.”

will have to Apple be worried? Does all this limit the potentialities for the new instrument? this is a half of-full, 1/2-empty state of affairs where 1/2-empty nonetheless method tens of millions of watches bought.

native Media monitoring find out about data (2014) from LSA argue, very like the Reuters ballot, that about 70 p.c of america inhabitants is just “no longer ” in a smartwatch at this point (Apple’s device wasn’t specifically identified in that survey). I used to be struck with the aid of the consistency between the two survey findings with totally different methodologies.

within the Reuters survey about 25 percent indicated they were “” or “very ” in an Apple Watch. in the prior LSA study, 19 % of respondents within the mixture stated they were desirous about shopping for a smartwatch. younger men (18 to 34) dwelling in city areas confirmed the greatest pastime (29 p.c for 18 to 24 yr olds).

Let’s take a look at what these figures would possibly imply in terms of sales and precise dollars. in keeping with comScore about 76 p.c of america cell subscriber population now own smartphones. here’s essentially the most latest market share breakdown:

• Android — fifty three.2 percent
• iPhone — 41.3 p.c
• windows telephone — 3.6 percent
• Others — 1.9

CTIA, the wireless business alternate affiliation, says that cell penetration in the usa is 104 percent. that will mean 320 million individuals have cellphones of some form (if truth be told infants don’t but have cell phones; many adults have multiple). Let’s bargain that CTIA quantity as extremely inflated. It’s very protected to say that about 250 million individuals in the usa have a cell phone — at the least fifty five percent of US households are mobile most effective or mostly cellular.

accordingly a rather conservative estimate of US smartphone house owners can be a hundred ninety million individuals. using that figure, right here’s what the market share numbers above would mean in real terms:

• Android — one zero one million
• iPhone — seventy eight million
• home windows telephone — 7 million
• Others — four million

If 25 percent of those 78 million iPhone homeowners have been to buy an Apple Watch it might mean 19.5 million doable house owners in america. but let’s additional bargain that quantity. within the Reuters survey, the “very interested” group represented 9.four p.c of respondents or, in my estimate, 7.three million possible patrons.

the usage of a standard promoting value of $350 (the entry stage Apple Watch) and 7.3 million units, we’re looking at $2.5 billion in additional gross revenues for Apple in the us. then again most patrons aren’t going to buy the more cost effective “game” model, they’ll almost definitely purchase the dearer “Apple Watch,” which starts at $549. (7 million unit sales at $549 is almost $4 billion.)

On its first weekend, international iPhone 6 and 6 Plus gross sales surpassed 10 million devices. the company went on to promote seventy five million iPhones, globally, throughout the vacation quarter. Apple is anticipated to sell 50 million extra handsets in Q1 2015. If roughly 10 p.c of the global iPhone 6 population (one hundred twenty five million roughly) go on to purchase an Apple watch that’s 12.5 million possible consumers — or greater than $4 billion in new world revenues ($7 billion at the larger price point).

Pre-orders start on April 10 and in-retailer availability on April 24, in about 9 international locations. It’s a secure bet that Apple will promote greater than 1,000,000 Watches all over this opening run to the “very .” what’s going to be extra interesting is to look if the software has legs and can attract the in simple terms “.”

however what if the skeptics are fallacious and Apple sells to no longer handiest very interested but additionally the merely and even the not sure — or 30 % of the iPhone inhabitants? On the high finish, that would mean gross sales of greater than $eight billion to $thirteen billion in the us by myself.

concerning the writer

Greg Sterling

Greg Sterling is a Contributing Editor at Search Engine Land. He writes a personal weblog, Screenwerk, about connecting the dots between digital media and real-world consumer habits. he’s also VP of strategy and Insights for the native Search affiliation. practice him on Twitter or in finding him at Google+.

(Some photography used below license from Shutterstock.com.)