Retail stores think they found ways to minimize the number of people shopping in their brick-and-mortar stores on Black Friday by staggering deals and discounts. This may help with a recovery — at least in the United States.

Qubit’s data shows a major bounce-back for affordable luxury and fashion items following dips early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Most sub-verticals are showing higher revenue and visitor growth year-over-year (YoY). This signals that consumers will increasingly do their holiday shopping online.

Basket values will increase in most verticals this holiday season, as consumers are spending significantly less in other area like events, travel and lodging.

Qubit’s study measured behavior based on 919,425,101 visitors; 1,158,533,718 online sessions; and 25,229,344 purchases.

From these numbers, the company also predicts key online retail metrics — conversion rates and revenue per visitor — will fluctuate, but most, if not all retail sub-verticals will see huge gains in these areas when compared with last year’s holiday season. Even when compared to the highest levels of this year.

Despite this year’s atypical shopping patterns, online shopping remains popular.

On Black Friday, 59% plan to shop online rather than in stores and 36% of those living in the U.S. plan to shop in person, according to research firm Suzy’s Black Friday Shopping Study conducted in mid-November.

The survey is based on responses online from 1,000 U.S. consumers. 

For those who want to avoid crowds, stay clear of big-box retailers. Consumers say when shopping in person, 85% will visit retailers like Target, Walmart and Best Buy, followed by malls at 70%, department stores at 56%, local stores at 50%, and outlet shops at 48%. 

Some 76% of shoppers are most interested in Black Friday electronics deals, while 64% are looking for apparel, 60% want home goods, and 60% said they would seek out toys.

Some 43% of consumers participating in the study recognize Black Friday as a shopping tradition, but 84% do not plan to honor this tradition by shopping in-person due to the pandemic.

About 61% plan to shop online on Cyber Monday, and 92% plan to shop on Amazon.com on Cyber Monday. Some 62% of those in the U.S. believe packages will take longer than usual to arrive.