One day before millions of Americans will take to the polls to vote in the most contentious election in modern U.S. history, shares in former president Donald Trump’s media company, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (Nasdaq: DJT), are falling for the second trading day in a row. Here’s what you need to know about DJT’s stock slump and what it may mean for the election.

What’s happened?

Shares in Trump Media are currently down sharply in premarket trading. As of the time of this writing, DJT stock is down over 6.5% to $28.55 per share. This sell-off is on top of the company’s decline on Friday, when DJT shares ended the day down a massive 13.53% to settle at $30.56 per share.

Why are DJT shares down?

Trump Media, which owns the former president’s Truth Social social media network, has not announced any negative news related to its financials or Truth Social’s user base that would normally be the source of such steep share price declines for most companies.

So if Trump Media hasn’t released any bad news, why is the stock falling? It all comes back to DJT being what many call a “belief stock.” A belief stock is defined as a stock where the popularity of the personality behind the stock—in this case, Donald Trump—drives the popularity of the stock or lack thereof.

But in many parts of the country, Donald Trump is still more popular than ever. If that’s the case, why are shares in DJT falling? It could have a lot to do with recent polling that reveals the former president’s chances of reelection aren’t as good as were thought last month.

October Trump Media surge

Shares in DJT have been on a roller coaster this year. The stock debuted in March and achieved highs of over $71 per share. But over the summer, the stock fluctuated wildly. And in September, DJT shares hit all-time lows as Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign seemed to be returning dividends for the Democratic nominee. 

However, as polls showed the former president making a comeback in late September and throughout October, DJT made a roaring comeback as well, jumping as much as 84% in the first part of October.

But over the past several days, polls have started to shift again, showing Harris may have a lead in some all-important swing states, including Pennsylvania and Iowa. If these polls are accurate, it’s a sign that Trump may have a more challenging path back to the White House than polls indicated just a few weeks ago.

What does a Trump election loss mean for Trump Media shares?

No one can predict a stock’s future. But given that DJT shares do seem to primarily be a belief stock, if Trump does lose the election, the fall in DJT’s share price over the past several trading days seems to signal a fear among investors of a continued sell-off, sending shares down even more. In short, DJT shares may be in for a continued bumpy ride, especially if Trump loses the election.