Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (Nasdaq: DJT) are surging for the second day in a row after the former president’s highly controversial rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday.

Here’s what you need to know about DJT’s stock price and what may be behind the rise.

DJT shares hit highs not seen since early summer

As of this writing, Trump Media shares are up over 15% to $54.89 in early trading. That’s on top of the over 21% share price surge Trump Media experienced (November 15, 2024), which saw its stock price climb over $8.40 to $47.36 per share.

Its current market price of above $54 per share this morning has not been seen since May. This week’s climb is the continuation of a stark reversal of fortunes Trump Media shares has experienced since September, when the stock fell to a near all-time low just before the lockout period expired on DJT shares. The lockout period prevented early DJT investors—including Trump—from selling their shares for a certain period.

After the lockout period expired, DJT shares fell another 10% to a near-all-time low of $12.15 on September 23. On September 24, DJT shares bottomed out at $11.75. Yet since early October, DJT shares have been on an upward trajectory and jumped as much as 84% in the first part of October.

And after Trump’s contentious Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday, DJT’s share price has skyrocketed even more. But why?

What does Trump Media do?

Trump Media’s main product is Truth Social, the former president’s social media network. Truth Social’s main source of revenue is advertising. But recently, the company has also branched out into the Truth+ streaming video service.

The service officially launched on October 14, and it is available on the web and via the Truth+ app on major platforms, including iOS and Android. In a press release, the company said its streaming service’s “content includes news, entertainment, faith-based programming, weather, documentaries, children’s content, and more, featuring both linear TV channels and Video on Demand (VOD).”

Yet besides the launch of its fledgling streaming service, there has been no news of events that would traditionally cause a stock to surge the way DJT has. That is, there has been no news of a massive amount of users joining Truth+ or news of Truth Social’s ad revenue exploding, for example.

Yet DJT shares have continued to surge in October—especially in the past two days after Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally, where his campaign managed to offend some of the most important voters they need right now.

Why are DJT shares surging?

So, what’s behind the surge in DJT’s share price? Probably nothing more than a belief among investors that Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election next week have only risen.

As Yahoo Finance notes, polls show Trump and Harris neck and neck—with some showing Trump slightly ahead, especially in crucial swing states. On top of that, betting firms that allow people to place wagers on who will win the election say more people are betting Trump will win rather than Harris.

Trump’s slight lead in some polls and the fact that gamblers seem to be favoring him to win may be what is leading DJT shares higher. This isn’t entirely surprising, given that Trump Media’s share price has never seemed to be about reflecting the financial fundamentals of the company. Instead, Trump Media shares are generally seen to be what some call a “belief stock”—the share price is driven by the popularity of the person behind the company.

If that’s the case—and polls and gambling institutions show Trump’s popularity rising—it’s little surprise that DJT shares may rise, too.