Global traditional TV spending will see a smaller rise in 2022 versus this year, up 3.3% to $184.7 billion, according to a new estimate from WARC, the marketing research and analytics group.

This would be slightly down from a 5.5% gain this year.

Overall, WARC projects a gain of 12.5% next year to $867.3 billion in 2022 in total advertising spending. It estimates a 24% rise this year to $771 billion.

“Market data shows we are currently witnessing a boom in advertising trade like none seen before, led by increased demand for retail media and ancillary publishers, such as Google and Instagram,” writes James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting at WARC.

Still, he cautions: “New coronavirus variants — such as Omicron — may have a negative impact on our current outlook. Our base scenario assumes that impact is muted.”

One of the fastest-growing segments continues to be new digital/OTT video platforms — expected to climb globally 23% to $76.3 billion. It adds that just looking at YouTube and Amazon ad-supported digital video platforms — like Amazon Fire TV — those two collective OTT platforms are poised to see a sharp 42% rise of $63.7 billion globally.

Digital-first ad platforms will still command major attention and growth: Social media will see a 23.1% rise next year to $232.1 billion. Paid search is forecast to be up 13.9% to $209 billion.

Broadcast radio is poised to gain 3.5% next year to $33.8 billion.

In a separate WARC survey of some 1,500 executives, it says 69% either expect TV ad spend to stay the same or rise next year — with 18% saying it will grow; 41% noting it will remain the same. Another 26% saying there will be a decline in spend.

When it comes to those sharply growing media platforms, 77% of executives said online video will increases in spend, 68% say increases are also coming fro social media and 66% for mobile.