The Japanese Transport and Tourism Ministry has a crazy idea to increase logistics efficiency, reduce road traffic, and avoid the increasingly dramatic labor shortage crisis the Asian nation is experiencing: build a 310-mile fully automated underground transportation system designed to move packages from Tokyo to Osaka and back. Looking at their plan and similar schemes around the world, this oversize sushi conveyor actually makes a lot of sense.

The logistics link between Tokyo and Osaka promises three main benefits. The first is alleviating traffic congestion on some of the country’s busiest highways. The Ministry estimates that this new transportation system will handle the cargo equivalent of 25,000 trucks per day. This will also reduce pollution. According to Minister Tetsuo Siago: “[The project] will not only address the logistics crisis, but also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” 

But eliminating traffic jams and CO2 reductions are not the main benefits of the plan. The biggest problem that this Godzilla-size sushi conveyor belt solves, according to the Japanese government, is that they don’t just have the people to drive all those trucks anymore. According to the latest figures from the Japanese government, the country lost 837,000 people during the year leading up to October 1, 2023, the largest annual decline since records began in 1950. This is equivalent to a decline of approximately 2,293 people per day. That’s 96 people dead per hour that are not replaced by new human beings.

According to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan is “on the verge of not being able to maintain social functions.” This means that Japan’s working-age population has been shrinking, too, from a peak of 87 million in 1993 to 75.3 million in 2018. The trend is expected to continue. By 2030, the total population is projected to decline from 126 million in 2018 to 119 million, exacerbating labor shortages across various sectors, including logistics?.

Meanwhile, the number of small parcel deliveries has doubled over the past 30 years due to the rise of online shopping. The current logistics infrastructure is struggling to cope, and it’s only going to get worse. According to the Ministry’s projections, 30% of packages shipped in 2030 will not be delivered due to labor shortages? caused by the decline in population.  

It’s no wonder that the Japanese authorities are freaking out and the Ministry is pushing the plan forward, aiming to complete the Tokyo-Osaka project by 2034. “We would like to speedily proceed with the discussions on the matter,” Siago told The Japan News.

The plan

The system will utilize fully automated, electric-powered pallets capable of carrying up to a ton of cargo each. Initially, these were going to run on tracks in the median of existing highways, but the government is now leaning toward tunnels under these routes. The pallets will be designed to carry all sorts of goods that can fit inside these smart pallets, from Amazon packages and agricultural goods to fresh fish and daily necessities. 

The planned route spans approximately 310 miles between Tokyo and Osaka, with construction costs estimated at up to $26 billion. The construction costs will range from $48 million to $550 million for every six miles of tunnel, depending on location. 

The project will not be easy to realize, with the usual structural and environmental challenges that come from this type of mega-infrastructures. The Ministry’s outline calls for discussions involving the private sector for funding, along with creating a dedicated organization to build and administer the new transportation system.

A global shift?

Japan is not the only country considering a high-tech solution to its logistics problem, but its project is by far the most ambitious and complicated due to the population density in Japanese cities. Switzerland, China, and the Netherlands are also working on systems that are similar to the Japanese conveyor belt.

Switzerland’s Cargo Sous Terrain (CST) project aims to create another 310-mile network of underground tunnels for cargo transport, albeit distributed in smaller tunnels to connect all major Swiss cities, including Zurich, Basel, and Geneva, by 2045. The system will utilize automated, driverless electric vehicles traveling on wheels in three-lane tunnels, capable of moving at a constant speed of 19 mph. CST’s estimated cost for the first section, from Härkingen-Niederbipp to Zurich, is around $3.6 billion, while the entire network is projected to cost approximately $33 to 38 billion. Switzerland’s objective is not to solve a workforce issue but to reduce CO2 emissions and ease urban traffic congestion?.

China is developing the Urban Underground Logistics Systems (ULS) in several major cities, including Beijing and Shanghai. These systems use automated guided vehicles (AGVs) and conveyor belts to transport goods through extensive underground tunnel networks. The ULS project was conceptualized in the mid-2010s by the Chinese government and its initial operational stages are expected to go online by 2025, extending the networks progressively by 2035?. The project is smaller in size, with estimated costs typically ranging between $3 and 4.5 billion, and aim to improve logistics efficiency and reduce surface traffic congestion. According to the Chinese authorities, they are one of Beijing’s many efforts to make its cities more livable and less polluted.

The Netherlands is also exploring underground freight transport systems, particularly focusing on large-diameter tunnels connecting urban distribution centers with key transport hubs such as airports and seaports. These projects also involve automated systems similar to conveyor belts as well as AGVs. With costs ranging from $11 to 16 billion, the initial pilot projects are expected to be operational by 2030, with full-scale implementation targeted for 2040. 

None of these projects have the scope of Japan’s project—which focuses on a single critical corridor, one of the busiest for high traffic density—but they show a potential trend across the world toward making logistics as automated, efficient, and clean as possible. On paper, they make perfect sense. We will just have to wait a few years to see if these crystallize into a transportation revolution or end dead and buried like Musk’s Hyperloop toy.