Paramount’s fate could go in 3 possible directions

Paramount’s fate could go in 3 possible directions

The future for Paramount remains uncertain as it considers multiple merger offers. Here’s how each of those possibilities could play out for the entertainment giant.

BY Chris Morris

Paramount Global is used to producing gripping dramas, but it likely didn’t expect to end up starring in one. Yet, the road to a potential Paramount merger has taken several twists and turns. Last Friday, the exclusive 30-day negotiating window between the special committee of the company’s board and Skydance Media came to an end. And, as expected, Sony Pictures Entertainment and private-equity firm Apollo Global Management swooped in near the end of the window with a competing offer.

What’s next? Honestly, no one knows. But there appear to be three directions this could go in the near future.

Option 1: Paramount accepts Skydance’s merger offer

Paramount has not yet publicly responded to Skydance’s “best and final” offer. That deal would see David Ellison’s company acquiring Shari Redstone’s National Amusements, which has a 77% voting share in Paramount, and merging that with Paramount Global. Skydance is said to be primarily interested in the Paramount Pictures studio and would likely look to divest other interests. That leaves the fate of holdings, including CBS, MTV, and the Paramount+ streaming service, uncertain.

Skydance’s offer for a Paramount merger has detractors, though, with some shareholders saying it primarily benefits Redstone and could negatively impact the value of Paramount shares for common shareholders. To appease those critics, Bloomberg reports that Skydance has proposed a stock buyback of $3 billion, paying a premium compared to Paramount’s current share price.

But by letting the exclusive negotiating period end, Paramount seems to be indicating it’s not interested in the offer.

Option 2: Paramount opts for the Sony/Apollo deal

Sony and Apollo made a nonbinding $26 billion cash offer for Paramount last week. Chief among their interests, it appears, is the company’s film division. The New York Times reports the companies plan to combine Paramount Pictures with Sony’s film business and sell off other units.

That means everything else—from CBS to MTV to Comedy Central to the Paramount Plus streaming service—would go on the block. (That SpongeBob Super Bowl simulcast from earlier this year? It could be a one-shot deal if CBS and Nickelodeon go to separate buyers.)

The two parties haven’t yet started formal negotiations, nor have they begun any due diligence—and that could take weeks. But there are already some potential problems with this deal. First, Redstone reportedly is opposed to breaking up the company, though that’s said not to be a complete dealbreaker, depending on the offer. She’s also reportedly not fond of selling to a private-equity-backed company.

The bigger issue, though, could be regulatory hurdles. Sony is headquartered in Japan, and foreign owners are not allowed to hold licenses for U.S. broadcast stations, such as the CBS-owned ones in the Paramount portfolio. Even if the board approves it, the deal would need the greenlight from the Committee on Foreign Investment.

Option 3: Go it alone

Despite the fact that Paramount lost its long-time CEO recently, there’s a very real chance that the company will reject both offers and continue with business as usual. A new three-person “Office of the CEO” is running things today, and Variety reports those execs have told employees they’re prepping “a long-term plan” for the company. That might include selling some assets, such as BET Media Group, to boost capital. And there are whispers of a team-up or combination of Paramount Plus and NBCUniversal’s Peacock streaming service (something that seems even more likely given Wednesday’s news of a Disney+/Hulu/Max bundle coming this summer).

LightShed Partners analysts Rich Greenfield, Brandon Ross, and Mark Kelley, in a blog post, said they expect Paramount “to go it alone” as clearance on the Sony deal would take at least a year, and the Skydance deal would come with potential legal headaches.

After all the drama and all the back-and-forth, this story could once again reset to the beginning. But if there’s one thing Hollywood can’t get enough of, it’s a good sequel.  

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Chris Morris is a veteran journalist with more than 30 years of experience. Learn more at chrismorrisjournalist.com. 


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