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To get an understanding of how home prices have changed since the mortgage rate shock, ResiClub‘s Lance Lambert House Price Tracker offers some helpful information.

Looking at the tracker’s “shift since the 2022 peak” data reveals the extent of local home price changes since 2022, coinciding with the height of the pandemic housing boom in most markets.

National home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index are down 0.8% below the 2022 peak as of February 2024, but on a local level, the figures vary—a lot.

Among the 500 largest U.S. counties, these five counties are up the most since the 2022 peak:

• Hartford County, Connecticut: +13.3%
• Mercer County, New Jersey: +12.4%
• Onondaga County, New York: +12.2%
• Camden County, New Jersey: +12.0%
• Knox County, Tennessee (Knoxville): +11.8%

Among the 500 largest U.S. counties, these five counties are down the most since the 2022 peak:

• New York County, New York (Manhattan): -21.4%
• Hinds County, Mississippi (Jackson): -17.7%
• Williamson County, Texas (Georgetown/Round Rock): -17.5%
• San Francisco County, California -17.3%
• Travis County, Texas: -17.1%

The conundrum of such a split housing market can be attributed to the fact that supply and demand have pulled back at different rates in different markets amid the mortgage rate shock.

In Austin’s market, demand has dropped faster than new listings, leading to increased softening. This bigger than normal demand decline is due to pandemic-related migration inflating prices excessively. Once rates spiked, and pandemic migration slowed, those frothy prices simply put affordability too far beyond local incomes. Moreover, Austin had a lot of new construction supply coming on the market over the past two years, which made up for the pullback in resale listings caused by the lock-in effect. Consequently, active listings in Travis County (Austin) have risen, and prices have fallen.

Conversely, in markets like Knox County, Tennessee (Knoxville), where fundamentals are less distorted and there’s less supply coming available, the pullback in supply has outpaced the reduction in demand. This delicate equilibrium between supply and demand dynamics keeps prices on an upward trajectory in Knox County, allowing sellers to maintain the upper hand in negotiations.

Big picture: U.S. home prices have been in a period of sideways movement following the 2022 mortgage rate shock. However, under the surface, some markets have seen prices fall while others continue to climb at an elevated pace.