Where the housing market shift is—and isn’t—happening
August 24, 2024
Where the housing market shift is—and isn’t—happening
The current softening in the housing market is concentrated by region. Here’s where home prices have moved the most.
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There’s an ongoing shift happening in most housing markets: cooling.
As strained housing affordability suppresses demand and the pandemic housing boom fades further into the rearview mirror, homes in most markets are taking longer to sell, leading to a year-over-year increase in active inventory in most housing markets.
We’re also starting to see a softening in home price growth in most markets. According to the Zillow Home Value Index, U.S. home prices rose just 0.3% month-over-month between June 2024 and July 2024. From a historical perspective, that increase of 0.3% is a fairly soft jump for this time of year, which is at the tail end of the seasonally strong reporting window. Historically speaking, June to July has averaged a +0.9% month-over-month increase since 2000.
This ongoing housing market shift is regionally concentrated.
Some regional housing markets in states such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Louisiana, where inventory has risen above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, are experiencing mild home price corrections. During the seasonally strong spring period, many of these markets in correction mode were showing very low or flat price increases. However, now that we’re past the seasonally strong period, some of those Southwest and Southeast markets are beginning to post outright month-over-month declines.
Markets that experience a negative month-over-month decline between the seasonally stronger June-to-July window typically see further declines from August to December.
Meanwhile, tight resale markets in places like Southern California, the Northeast, and the Midwest—where prices are still up year-over-year—are holding steady. While these stable markets are likely done posting month-over-month price gains for the 2024 calendar year, they’re not in correction mode yet and will likely see mild price increases next spring, assuming no major changes occur.
As month-over-month U.S. home price growth softens, so is year-over-year growth. According to the Zillow Home Value Index, U.S. home prices are up 2.8% year-over-year between July 2023 and July 2024.
By the end of 2024, Zillow expects year-over-year national home price growth to decelerate to 1.8%. By July of 2025, Zillow economists are forecasting national year-over-year home price growth to be just 0.9%.
The interactive map below shows how home prices across the country have shifted compared to last year.
Certain markets, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, experienced home price growth over the past 12 months that exceeds the label “modest.” Meanwhile, home prices in specific areas in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, and the Mountain West have softened or even declined over the past year.
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