Keep in mind that even if Goldman Sachs accurately predicts the national home price growth, there could still be regional home price corrections during that period. Similarly, if Moody’s prediction is correct and national home prices essentially remain flat for a few years, there will likely be several regional areas where home prices decline.

Goldman Sachs’ take:

“We expect housing demand to remain firm, reflecting supportive demographic trends and a healthy labor market,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a report published last week. “The combination of modestly higher supply growth and firm demand should result in only a modest increase in the homeowner vacancy rate (GS forecast 1.1% for 2025 Q4 vs. 1.4% in 2019). Against the backdrop of a still-tight but easing housing market, we expect national home prices to rise 3.8% December-over-December this year.”

Moody’s take:

“We expect homes for sale to steadily increase as more existing homeowners need to sell for demographic reasons—death, divorce, children, job change—and lower mortgage rates help ease their interest rate lock,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi tells ResiClub. “The lower rates will also support housing demand, but the increase in housing supply will be even more significant, weighing on house price gains.”